A Dam, a Patch, a Failure – Satellite Assessment

Clear warning signs were present at least 18 months prior to the Waxhoma dam failure in Oklahoma, US.

May 29, 2025

Regular satellite-based monitoring of critical infrastructure can alert owners, operators, and insurers of developing risks to their assets, enabling on-site engineers to carry out remedial work to prevent costly failures.

The recent incident at Waxhoma dam in Oklahoma exemplifies this. Satellite data indicated movements — typically signs of developing structural weaknesses — precisely at the location of the failure at least 18 months before it occurred.

On 30 April, Waxhoma dam suffered a failure due to a patched area atop the spillway giving way. Water started pouring through the opening beneath the spillway instead of flowing over the structure. In May 2021, the dam experienced a similar failure, leading to the patch being installed.

Waxhoma dam on the right. Inset: the dam spillway area with the movement cluster identified by ValueSpace.

ValueSpace conducted a standard three-year satellite-based assessment of the failure site up until the incident, identifying a clear movement cluster exactly at the patched section of the dam.

The detailed timeline of the movement data shows the following:

Markers on the chart identify movement velocity and trend changes on the three-year analysis timeline.

  • The patched area was stable until April 2023, showing almost negligible deformation of up to 2 mm per year.

  • A clear and noticeable change in movement velocity occurred from April to July 2023, reaching up to 50 mm per year (see between the first and second markers on the graph).

  • This was followed by a brief period of change in movement direction, which reversed again in October 2023, showing some stabilisation albeit with a persistent downward deformation velocity of up to 13 mm per year.

  • From December 2024, the movement velocity increased noticeably again, reaching up to 50 mm per year, with no sign of stabilisation prior to the failure in late April 2025.

Had the dam been under regular satellite monitoring and considering that the patched area was already known as a potential weak point, ValueSpace would have issued the first warning of possible developing structural issues at least 18 months before the failure in April 2025.

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